Optimism related to the airfreight market was evident in the latest Index. For the current situation, the index noted a 1.6-point jump from August to 45.3. While still below the 50-level, this is the highest point for the current airfreight market since the Stifel Logistics Confidence Index began in early 2012. By trade lane, the Europe-US lane recorded an exceptionally strong increase at 4.9 points, while the US-Europe lane recorded a more marginal increase of 0.8 points. While both lanes still indicate contractions compared to expectations at 47.9 and 45.7, they too, are at the highest levels since the Index first began. The improving economies for the US and Europe are perhaps among the reasons for this growth.
The Logistics Confidence index continues to indicate increasing optimism among European freight forwarders in regards to the next six months for the airfreight market. In particular, on the Asia-Europe lane which noted the largest gain from August, increasing 4.6 points from August to 60.4. This may indicate the potential increase in spending as the holiday season approaches.
The overall sea freight index noted a 0.4 decline to 54.1. The decline was noted in both the present situation which declined 0.4 points to 48.4 and six months expectations which declined 0.5 points to 59.7. The decline may be due to rate implementations and announcements for additional rate adjustments effective September 1. It was particularly interesting to note that the US trade lanes were negatively affected for both present and future expectations; meanwhile the Asian trade lanes were mixed.
Despite the downturn in the sea freight index, in this month's unique question, survey participants were asked if they believe there will be a peak season in 2013. The mixed results indicated uncertainty among participants as 42.4 percent indicated there would be a peak season, while 36.7 percent indicated there wouldn't and 20.9 percent were unsure. However, a general consensus among the survey participants was the feeling there would be no peak season for the European market as the region was still recovering. Other participants expect a peak season to occur in late October or early November.
The Logistics Confidence Index indicates there should be a positive change in the next six months, climbing 0.5 points to 59.1 for September. Confidence is on the rise as freight forwarders expect improving market conditions and increases in volumes.
The Stifel Logistics Confidence Index is generated from an extensive survey of global logistics professionals, asked to provide their views on current levels of volumes in the industry and their expectations for six months’ time. An index value of 50 indicates no change in the volumes currently being experienced for the time of year; above 50 indicates higher volumes, while below 50 indicates lower volumes.
Source: Transport Intelligence