Global Vehicle Production to Increase by 21 Million Units by 2021; China to Account for Half
By: IHS Automotive May 12, 2014
Global automobile production will increase by 21 million units by 2021, and has grown by 25 million units since 2009 as the industry continues to recover from the impact of the global economic recession, according to a forecast by IHS Automotive, part of IHS Inc. China will dominate, but there is a considerable upside attached to the North American industry as it attracts foreign investment, and in the European industry as its domestic markets climb back. Japanese and South Korean production will decline as local OEMs focus their efforts overseas.
Declining vehicle demand in Russia and Turkey will limit European production growth to one percent this year, according to IHS Automotive. However, from 2015 to 2017 European output is expected to increase by four percent per year, led by the recovery of domestic demand and sustainable increase in exports, primarily to the U.S. and China.
While it currently consumes 70 percent of European production, Western European demand will contribute only 50 percent of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, more than a half will come from Spain and Italy as they recover from enormous losses experienced during the years of recession.
“European car makers will meet divergent demand environments, depending on which part of Europe they are more exposed to,” said Denis Schemoul, manager of Europe vehicle production forecasting, IHS Automotive.
“Segments are changing globally as the emerging markets tip the balance and mature markets come under pressure to downsize,” said Mark Fulthorpe, director of global vehicle production forecasting at IHS Automotive.