High Or Low Interest Rates? Two Scenarios For The U.S. Economy
By: Robert J. Bowman, SupplyChainBrain January 06, 2017
"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." So said a Danish wit nearly 80 years ago. But when it comes to divining the direction of the economy, why try?
Economists and money managers stake their reputations on the ability to foresee economic trends - even if they're frequently wrong. Perhaps a more honest approach would be to admit ignorance, then prepare for any eventuality. That's the strategy of portfolio manager Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief investment officer with Investment Management Associates, Inc., a value investment firm based in Denver, Col. On this episode, Katsenelson explains how he chooses stocks while avoiding the kind of commitments that can blow up when things don't pan out as expected. He also lays out two possible scenarios for the U.S. economy in the coming year - one if interest rates rise, the other if they remain low. The trick, Katsenelson says, is planning for an "I Don't Know World." Hosted by Bob Bowman, Managing Editor of SupplyChainBrain.
Look for a new episode of the podcast, which can be downloaded or streamed, every Friday on the SupplyChainBrain website and iTunes.
Katsenelson's book, The Little Book of Sideways Markets: How to Make Money in Markets That Go Nowhere.