Executive Briefings

China's Demand for Commercial Vehicles Expected to Soften

The pace of China's economy rose slightly in Q2'14, with growth of 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, mirroring the rate witnessed in the same period last year, according to the most recent China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, jointly published quarterly by ACT and SIC, China’s State Information Center. It includes an overview of the China economy and a review and forecast of China's heavy and medium-duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China.

“We expect that China will maintain economic growth in the 7.5 percent range in the short to intermediate term,” said Frank Maly, Director – CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT. “Inflationary pressure will remain low. The resulting impact will be a softening in commercial vehicle demand in 2014, with 2015 continuing at a similar volume level,” he added.

For perspective, full-year 2013 real GDP growth was 7.7 percent, down slightly from 7.8 percent in 2012, 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010.

SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.

In other developments reported by ACT Research, Class 8 orders in the U.S. continued in above-expectations mode in August. Total net orders were 25,363 units. Classes 5-7 net orders rose to a four-month high of 18,012. “Through the middle of the third quarter, conditions remained favorable for continued healthy commercial vehicle demand,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Following one of the best order months cycle-to-date, August’s Class 8 orders were 16 percent below July, but were up 30 percent compared to last year. Through year-to-date August, Class 8 orders have been booked at a 336,600 unit annual rate.”

ACT is a publisher of new- and used-commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the U.S. tractor-trailer market and the China CV market.

Source: ACT Research

“We expect that China will maintain economic growth in the 7.5 percent range in the short to intermediate term,” said Frank Maly, Director – CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT. “Inflationary pressure will remain low. The resulting impact will be a softening in commercial vehicle demand in 2014, with 2015 continuing at a similar volume level,” he added.

For perspective, full-year 2013 real GDP growth was 7.7 percent, down slightly from 7.8 percent in 2012, 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010.

SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.

In other developments reported by ACT Research, Class 8 orders in the U.S. continued in above-expectations mode in August. Total net orders were 25,363 units. Classes 5-7 net orders rose to a four-month high of 18,012. “Through the middle of the third quarter, conditions remained favorable for continued healthy commercial vehicle demand,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Following one of the best order months cycle-to-date, August’s Class 8 orders were 16 percent below July, but were up 30 percent compared to last year. Through year-to-date August, Class 8 orders have been booked at a 336,600 unit annual rate.”

ACT is a publisher of new- and used-commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the U.S. tractor-trailer market and the China CV market.

Source: ACT Research