Executive Briefings

Chinese Factory Inflation Could Rise 4 Percent in 2017 First Quarter, Analysts Say

The factory to the world has a new export: inflation. And it's shipping faster than many thought possible just a few months ago. China's weakening yuan, stimulus designed to ensure robust growth ahead of a crucial Communist Party Congress next year, and rebounding commodity prices are pushing up factory prices.

Having turned positive in September for the first time in more than four years, producer prices rose 1.2 percent in October from a year earlier. That will almost double in November, according to analysts.

The pace is seen quickening even more next year: JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates factory inflation will rise to as high as 4 percent in the first quarter while Commonwealth Bank of Australia sees it peaking at 6 percent in the third quarter of 2017.

Such increases would ripple through China's vast supply chain across Asia, and to consumer markets from New York to New Zealand. The price turnaround coincides with a recent spike in oil prices and rising expectations for global reflation as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to boost fiscal and infrastructure spending.

"China may quickly fuel upward global price movements once the country's manufacturers begin passing on their own rising costs, which should happen quite quickly in 2017," said Andrew Polk, Beijing-based head of China research at Medley Global Advisors, which advises hedge funds and other institutional investors.

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Having turned positive in September for the first time in more than four years, producer prices rose 1.2 percent in October from a year earlier. That will almost double in November, according to analysts.

The pace is seen quickening even more next year: JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates factory inflation will rise to as high as 4 percent in the first quarter while Commonwealth Bank of Australia sees it peaking at 6 percent in the third quarter of 2017.

Such increases would ripple through China's vast supply chain across Asia, and to consumer markets from New York to New Zealand. The price turnaround coincides with a recent spike in oil prices and rising expectations for global reflation as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to boost fiscal and infrastructure spending.

"China may quickly fuel upward global price movements once the country's manufacturers begin passing on their own rising costs, which should happen quite quickly in 2017," said Andrew Polk, Beijing-based head of China research at Medley Global Advisors, which advises hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Read Full Article