Executive Briefings

Look Who's Growing - Not Emerging Markets But the Older Economies

The balance of world economic growth is tipping in another direction. Just as economists have begun lowering their forecasts for China and many other developing economies, the American economy is bouncing back. Japan appears to have turned a corner and is ending almost two decades of grinding deflation. Economic data out of Europe on Wednesday provided the first solid indication that many countries in the euro zone may be escaping the clutches of recession.

Look Who's Growing – Not Emerging Markets But the Older Economies

The gross domestic product of the 17-nation euro zone grew at an annualized rate of about 1.2 percent in the second quarter. It is certainly not clear, based on only three months of data, that Europe's recession has ended. But it is further evidence that the older engines of growth are revving into gear as the most recent sources of growth have been slowing down.

"The general proposition for much of the last generation has been that emerging markets grow faster. That's what's changed," said Neal Soss, the chief economist at Credit Suisse.

"The acceleration such as it is happening is in the first-world economy rather than the emerging markets."

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The gross domestic product of the 17-nation euro zone grew at an annualized rate of about 1.2 percent in the second quarter. It is certainly not clear, based on only three months of data, that Europe's recession has ended. But it is further evidence that the older engines of growth are revving into gear as the most recent sources of growth have been slowing down.

"The general proposition for much of the last generation has been that emerging markets grow faster. That's what's changed," said Neal Soss, the chief economist at Credit Suisse.

"The acceleration such as it is happening is in the first-world economy rather than the emerging markets."

Read Full Article

Look Who's Growing – Not Emerging Markets But the Older Economies