Executive Briefings

Threats to Recovery Remain, Says Forecast from Canadian Agency

Canada's exports are forecast to rise by 11 percent in 2010 as they begin to rebound from the worst year on recent record, but a number of threats remain before world demand moves beyond the critical zone, according to the Global Export Forecast released by Export Development Canada (EDC).

EDC's forecast also called for Canada's exports to grow by seven percent in 2011, when it believes true, sustainable growth will begin. "Despite over a year of proclamations to the contrary, global recovery remains elusive," said Peter Hall, chief economist at EDC. "It's true that growth has resumed, and some of the movement is eye-catching. But there is a big difference between the end of recession and the start of recovery. Genuine recovery requires a much more sustained, aggressive growth pace than we have experienced to date, and much higher levels of activity than we currently see. We may have recovery in our sights, but we're not quite there."

EDC's forecast noted that while some of the current growth numbers are positive, they are supported by a heavy dose of public stimulus. The value of total developed-economy stimulus spending is worth nearly four percent of OECD GDP, a significant impact when compared with average annual growth in these economies. 

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Canada's exports are forecast to rise by 11 percent in 2010 as they begin to rebound from the worst year on recent record, but a number of threats remain before world demand moves beyond the critical zone, according to the Global Export Forecast released by Export Development Canada (EDC).

EDC's forecast also called for Canada's exports to grow by seven percent in 2011, when it believes true, sustainable growth will begin. "Despite over a year of proclamations to the contrary, global recovery remains elusive," said Peter Hall, chief economist at EDC. "It's true that growth has resumed, and some of the movement is eye-catching. But there is a big difference between the end of recession and the start of recovery. Genuine recovery requires a much more sustained, aggressive growth pace than we have experienced to date, and much higher levels of activity than we currently see. We may have recovery in our sights, but we're not quite there."

EDC's forecast noted that while some of the current growth numbers are positive, they are supported by a heavy dose of public stimulus. The value of total developed-economy stimulus spending is worth nearly four percent of OECD GDP, a significant impact when compared with average annual growth in these economies. 

Read Full Article