Executive Briefings

While Much of the World Flounders, Growth Opportunities Seem to Be in Asia

By September 2009, it was clear that China, India and other emerging Asian economies would be the first part of the global economy to rebound. In the second quarter of 2009, China's GDP was up 7.9 percent compared to the same quarter in 2008; India's growth rates began to rise over the same period. This all came as a surprise to many observers, who had overestimated the importance of exports to the largest Asian economies and otherwise underestimated Asia's healthy fundamentals. As it turned out, domestic banking systems in China and India were relatively unaffected by the subprime and securitization crisis, and rapid growth in domestic demand, spurred by government stimulus, compensated for at least some of the drag caused by declining exports. Forecasts call for even better results in 2010. In addition, economic prospects are either stable or rebounding in Pacific Rim nations. In the second quarter of 2009, according to a survey in the Economist, Singapore, China, Korea, Japan and Australia showed quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth of 21 percent, 15 percent, 10 percent, 0.9 percent, and 0.6 percent, respectively. The accuracy of specific numbers may be open to debate, but the general direction is undeniable.

This kind of growth, at a time when prospects for the economies of Europe and North America remain ambiguous or moribund, offers substantial opportunities for global businesses.

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By September 2009, it was clear that China, India and other emerging Asian economies would be the first part of the global economy to rebound. In the second quarter of 2009, China's GDP was up 7.9 percent compared to the same quarter in 2008; India's growth rates began to rise over the same period. This all came as a surprise to many observers, who had overestimated the importance of exports to the largest Asian economies and otherwise underestimated Asia's healthy fundamentals. As it turned out, domestic banking systems in China and India were relatively unaffected by the subprime and securitization crisis, and rapid growth in domestic demand, spurred by government stimulus, compensated for at least some of the drag caused by declining exports. Forecasts call for even better results in 2010. In addition, economic prospects are either stable or rebounding in Pacific Rim nations. In the second quarter of 2009, according to a survey in the Economist, Singapore, China, Korea, Japan and Australia showed quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP growth of 21 percent, 15 percent, 10 percent, 0.9 percent, and 0.6 percent, respectively. The accuracy of specific numbers may be open to debate, but the general direction is undeniable.

This kind of growth, at a time when prospects for the economies of Europe and North America remain ambiguous or moribund, offers substantial opportunities for global businesses.

Read Full Article