Executive Briefings

WTO Predicts International Trade to Grow 13.5 Percent in 2010

In forecasting that international trade will expand by an unprecedented 13.5 percent this year, the World Trade Organization is revising its previous estimate because global commerce has bounced back much quicker than expected.

The WTO had predicted in March that trade in merchandise goods would rebound by 10 percent this year as the world emerges from recession. But it now sees global trade growing at a faster rate than at any time since the data were first measured in 1950 as exports and imports surge, especially in China and other emerging economies. WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said the strong recovery of trade signaled improved economic activity world wide. "This surge in trade flows provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work. It underscores, as well, the wisdom governments have shown in rejecting protectionism."

In 2009, exports worldwide contracted by 12.2 percent -- the biggest fall since World War II - as demand for goods shriveled in the economic crisis, and finance to fund trade dried up in the wake of the credit crunch. WTO economists expect developing economies and countries in the former Soviet Union to see exports expand by a massive 16.5 percent after contracting 7.8 percent in 2009. Rich countries are set to enjoy an expansion of 11.5 percent after a slump of 15.3 percent last year.

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In forecasting that international trade will expand by an unprecedented 13.5 percent this year, the World Trade Organization is revising its previous estimate because global commerce has bounced back much quicker than expected.

The WTO had predicted in March that trade in merchandise goods would rebound by 10 percent this year as the world emerges from recession. But it now sees global trade growing at a faster rate than at any time since the data were first measured in 1950 as exports and imports surge, especially in China and other emerging economies. WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said the strong recovery of trade signaled improved economic activity world wide. "This surge in trade flows provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work. It underscores, as well, the wisdom governments have shown in rejecting protectionism."

In 2009, exports worldwide contracted by 12.2 percent -- the biggest fall since World War II - as demand for goods shriveled in the economic crisis, and finance to fund trade dried up in the wake of the credit crunch. WTO economists expect developing economies and countries in the former Soviet Union to see exports expand by a massive 16.5 percent after contracting 7.8 percent in 2009. Rich countries are set to enjoy an expansion of 11.5 percent after a slump of 15.3 percent last year.

Read Full Article