Monthly import cargo volumes into the U.S. could reach their highest levels in two years as soon as this summer. 

The National Retail Federation's (NRF) Global Port Tracker is currently projecting more than 2.1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in imports to the U.S. in each of June, July and August, topping out at 2.17 million in the final month of that period. If August reaches that threshold, it would represent the highest number of monthly imported TEUs into the U.S. since August of 2022 (2.26 million). 

NRF supply chain vice president Jonathan Gold says this is likely due to a bump in consumer spending so far in 2024, as retailers have stocked up to meet that demand. In total, the NRF projects retail sales — excluding cars, gas stations and restaurants — to grow by as much as 3.5% between 2023 and 2024.  

A "flattened peak season" for shipping is another factor at play, according to Hackett Associates co-founder Ben Hackett, who developed the Global Port Tracker for the NRF. The year's main peak shipping season will typically stretch from August to October, driven by higher demand from holiday shopping. In 2024, that season appears to be starting earlier than usual due to a variety of factors.

"Reasons range from retailers restocking following strong sales after the pandemic, to trying to get ahead of increased tariffs on goods from China set to take effect in August, and ensuring sufficient inventories for the holiday season amid strong consumer demand," Hackett said. 

Many shippers have also moved scheduled shipments up to the earlier summer months, according to Container xChange, in a bid to get ahead of future disruptions brought on by ongoing Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea.