Although Walmart reported a 4.1% bump in revenue for the 2024 fiscal year, the retail giant is expecting tougher headwinds in the months to come. 

According to The New York Times, Walmart is projecting a more slightly modest 3-4% revenue increase in 2025, with its forecast for adjusted earnings per share sitting in the $2.50-2.60 range, falling short of the $2.76 figure predicted by analysts. 

“Our outlook assumes a relatively stable macroeconomic environment, but acknowledges that there are still uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions,” Walmart CFO John David Rainey said. 

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Despite Walmart's revenues having seen a late boost late last year from a strong holiday shopping season, concerns have mounted in the coming year over steadily rising inflation rates, as well as the threat of tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump. Inflation rates in the U.S. rose to 3% in January 2025, up slightly from 2.9% in the previous month, and reaching their highest levels since June 2024. That said, Walmart expressed confidence in its ability to manage any new levies from the Trump administration, with CEO Doug McMillon telling investors that the company did not factor impacts from tariffs into its revenue forecast. 

In Q4 of 2024, Amazon also reported more single-quarter revenue than Walmart for the first time ever. Prior to that, Walmart had occupied the top spot for quarterly revenue among U.S. retailers since 1993, when it dethroned Sears.