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Home » The White House's 'Reciprocal' Tariff Math Doesn't Add Up

The White House's 'Reciprocal' Tariff Math Doesn't Add Up

A black silhouetted man standing in front of rows of shadowed shipping containers, each bearing the flag of a different country

Photo: iStock / Angelica Zander

April 3, 2025
SupplyChainBrain

When President Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs against 60 countries on what he dubbed "Liberation Day," he claimed that the so-called "reciprocal" rates were calculated based on each nation's own levies against the U.S., and then divided in half. For example, because China's existing tariffs and trade barriers supposedly impacted 68% of American goods, the U.S. hit back with 34% tariffs. But in reality, the calculations actually appear to be based on trade deficits.

Read More: Trump Kicks Off Global Trade War with Sweeping Tariffs

When the White House was later pressed by members of the media over the assertion that the tariffs were "reciprocal," the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) shared a complicated mathematical formula filled with Greek symbols to show its work. Further analysis revealed that the rates weren't related to foreign tariffs at all, and instead took the bilateral trade deficit for the U.S. measured in goods for each country, divided that by the total goods imported from those countries, and then divided that number in half. The end result was a methodology that was, as The Economist put it, "almost as random as taxing you on the number of vowels in your name." 

The USTR then put out a release on April 3 that repeated Trump's erroneous claim that the tariffs were "reciprocal," while stressing the need to balance American trade relationships across the globe, and appearing to confirm that the calculations were indeed based on deficits rather than foreign levies.

According to CNN, Jones Trading chief marketing strategist Mike O'Rourke also noted to investors on April 3 that tariffs based on trade deficits are "generally going to be most severe on the nations that U.S. companies rely heavily upon in their supply chain." 

"It is hard to imagine how these tariffs would not wreak havoc upon the profit margins of major multinational corporations," he added.

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