The end of de minimis exemptions for low-value shipments to the U.S. from China could "dramatically disrupt" e-commerce volumes that have long-fueled the global air freight market.

According to a May 2 release from freight market data provider Xeneta, e-commerce accounts for roughly half of all air cargo shipments between China and the U.S., as well as 6% of global volumes. But with the U.S. ending de minimis for China on May 2, those volumes are expected to take a massive hit, especially with Chinese e-commerce giant Temu having halted the sale of all goods shipped from China to U.S. customers. Prior to that, Temu had taken advantage of de minimis exemptions to ship millions of packages into the U.S. each day. 

"If shippers can’t sell their goods because of tariffs, that’s bad news for the macroeconomic picture and the need for airfreight," Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said, warning supply chain stakeholders to "be prepared for a logistical mess" in the weeks and months ahead.

Read More: May 2 Brings End to Duty-Free Imports from China to U.S.

The impacts from tariffs were already present in April, with global air cargo demand increasing by just 4% year-over-year, compared to double-digit gains that were seen in each month between April 2024 and December 2024. That was also despite spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America jumping by 13% month-over-month in the first half of April, triggered by a brief rush of air shipments to get ahead of tariffs announced by the President Donald Trump on April 2, before those gains reversed course in the latter half of the month.

Ultimately, Xeneta predicts that the traditional air freight market will struggle to compensate for the decline in e-commerce volumes brought on the end of de minimis for China. And while that will also likely lead to positive adjustments from airlines to networks and a rise in air freight capacity for shippers, "they will still need viable trading conditions to enjoy the benefit of this opportunity," van de Wouw noted.

“This may be a year when we grow weary of seeing the word ‘unprecedented’ in market performance statements," he added. "The macroeconomic picture will depend on how long the uncertainty lasts and what will be at the end of it, but the outlook currently looks quite daunting."