Disruptions to the supply of diesel fuel – distinct from gasoline – mean diesel prices may not quickly return to prewar levels after a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Further, resumption of adequate distribution of diesel fuel to every place that needs it could take months, reports The New York Times.

The transportation industry is already straining because the price of diesel has risen much more quickly than gasoline since the February 28 outbreak of war. The average price of a gallon of diesel in the U.S. has gone up by about 45%, while a gallon of regular gasoline has risen about 35%. The Energy Information Administration, a federal research agency, expects average U.S. diesel prices to peak at more than $5.80 a gallon in April, and to average $4.80 for 2026, in contrast to gasoline, which would average $4.30 a gallon in April, and $3.70 over the whole year.

The Persian Gulf produces oil that is particularly well-suited to refining to diesel and jet fuel, and supplies were already tight before the war, the Times says. While the U.S. is normally a net exporter of petroleum products, including diesel, domestic refineries are not set up to make up the shortfall in diesel currently available. China has refineries that could have picked up some of the slack, but has restricted fuel exports because of its own supply crunch from the Gulf.