Ocean carrier Maersk is warning of potential disruptions to shipping around East Africa and other surrounding regions, as Super El Niño conditions continue to raise the risk of flooding at key shipping hubs.

In an October 6 advisory, Maersk highlighted how heavy rainfall, flooding and damage to road infrastructure could impact access to ports, terminals, depots and inland delivery routes across East Africa between October and December. That could lead to longer transit times, temporary route restrictions, delays in cargo flows to neighboring countries, longer truck turnaround times and slower cargo handling.

"While the timing and severity of weather remains uncertain and conditions may vary by location, we believe it is important to share the potential risks and recommend mitigation measures to support your planning," Maersk said.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions in the closing quarter of 2026 in the Greater Horn of Africa, covering Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and a host of other nations situated near or along the continent's northeastern coast. That forecast calls for a 90% chance of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya.

Although above-average rainfall will likely improve the region's pasture and water availability for livestock, it also significantly raises flood risk, which could lead to crop destruction, damage to critical shipping infrastructure, and the increased spread of waterborne diseases. 

Maersk advises customers in the region to allow for additional planning and transit time, deliver export cargo to terminals well ahead of applicable cut-offs, coordinate with receiving facilities to confirm transport availability and road access, and actively monitor shipment updates and official weather guidance.