How can supply chains navigate in this time of extreme volatility and disruption?

The first thing to do is separate the signal from the noise. From sourcing tactics to talent strategies, you need to take a measured approach to the things that might — and might not — happen. 

The Talent Shortage Crisis

Will there be enough workers to fill the jobs? Newly built manufacturing plants in the U.S. require people with front-line as well as personnel-management skills— yet they lack enough experienced plant managers to fill those positions. There’s a pressing need for new leaders to fill in for those who are aging out of manufacturing roles. And if we continue to lose skilled labor to migration out of fear of deportation, then managers will have to step up and try to close those already widening gaps.

A measured approach to market fluctuations is always wise. Don’t overexpand and overhire during the good times, and you won’t have to overcorrect in the bad times. It’s like the military says: “Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.” You know your optimal growth rate and how to achieve it. Success depends on how well we all respond to the “noise,” and these dramatic market shifts, in real time. 

Industries across the globe are facing wage pressures and skills shortages. Manufacturing, agriculture and food production, healthcare, and technology are all in need of more people to fill existing and future roles amid escalating wage demands. 

Specific roles and positions within the supply chain sector that are seeing heightened demand include logistics managers, supply chain analysts, procurement specialists, warehouse operations managers, and plant managers.

Strategic Workforce Planning

If the Trump administration ends up levying tariffs on Canada and Mexico, there will be major personnel and production disruptions. It could result in more qualified workers hitting the market. How long production might cease, or whether the tariffs will eventually be rolled back, represent a big unknown. That’s why it’s important to act only on what we know, and when.  

If you need to hire, hire. If demand is up in your sector, respond to it. If you need skilled workers for your front-line operations, by all means hire them. Remember that consumer demand drives all of this.

While the intent of tariffs is to drive reshoring of manufacturing, real-world results can show mixed success due to supply chain complexity and cost structures. You can’t just add a tariff and expect domestic manufacturing to immediately improve. Import-export balances rely on a lot more than where something is made. Supply bases and workforce availability are massive influencers on the success or failure of import taxes. High labor expense was a major reason for offshore manufacturing, but who’s going to work these jobs if you reshore them, and at what cost? Who will pay American wages for jobs that can still be done for less in different countries, where tariffs don’t apply?

The Job Market Food Chain

The good news amidst all of this upheaval is that people are still spending money, and the American economy remains strong. Companies should be hiring and operating in a measured way to meet this demand.

There are people to do the work. However, as you begin expanding, consider who is available and at what price. You want to attract the best. Figure out where you stand among your competitors and take the following steps:

Figure out how you compare in the food chain of jobs. If people aren’t choosing to work with you, take an inventory of why, and assess your key differentiators.

Source people based on soft skills as well. Attitude and work ethic often can’t be taught. Be willing to invest in upskilling and more onboarding practices that can help your new hires grow and develop into leaders.

Focus on worker retention. We say “supply chain is people” all the time. How are you investing in your people with retention policies that will allow you to develop and maintain a talent pipeline that can withstand market fluctuations?

Improve the working environment. If you’re competing for talent, then compete. Improve working conditions. Make your workplace attractive.

Develop a pipeline of university talent. Build relationships with the schools that are training our future supply chain talent, and groom them with operational experience. This allows them to grow into more well-rounded leaders.

There may be a big downsizing and reduction in force in the federal bureaucracy. The resulting influx of personnel into the marketplace could be useful for the private sector across many industries. It’s yet to be seen whether supply chain will benefit from this. Employers may need to invest in significant upskilling when tapping this talent pool.  

Using Past Market Trends for Future Hiring 

Stick to the basics.

The most effective leaders aren’t combing social media platforms, because they’re filled with noise. Look backward and analyze how the machinations of Washington D.C. have impacted your business over the short and long term. Legislation can drive funding and priorities, but unless it’s targeted, it might not impact you.

Tariffs have been a factor across the last three administrations. Analyze how your business has responded. Be sure you’re hiring more strategic talent to fit in with emerging conditions on the ground. Procurement and strategic sourcing, for example, could be in high demand to satisfy the need to diversified production on the component level. Do you need to find managers who can thrive in this environment?

A Measured Approach to Talent

Be intentional about hiring the right people at the right time. Don’t be misled by a loosening market. Even if job openings are stabilizing, the real challenge might be finding candidates with the right skills in a highly volatile atmosphere. Consider focusing on fit, rather than just filling positions quickly. This allows for growth and maintains the long view. There are a lot of highly invested individuals and business professionals who stand to lose billions in the event that the American government overreaches in its efforts to control global trade markets.

Consumers will ultimately drive a lot of your decisions. Despite all the noise, the world is in a favorable economic place. People are spending money and want more stuff. And people will always need supply chains for the essentials of everyday life. Maintain existing relationships and diversify as needed, but don't throw the baby out with the bath water. Continue fostering good will among your vendors and suppliers, while keeping an eye on the need to diversify on a component level.

Taking time in onboarding the best talent will help you withstand any potential volatility. Soft skills will come into play as well, so look for problem-solvers. Find the people with a strategic vision from an operational and tactical background.  

Successful global supply chain management nowadays requires one to filter out a lot of noise. Find the experts and listen to them about what might happen. They’ll tell you to operate in a manner that has worked in the past, while being prepared and agile enough to make sustainable adjustments in a measured way.

Chris Gaffney is a supply chain talent adviser and podcast host.