A long-feared rail strike in Canada could arrive by the end of August, as workers and railroads continue to make little progress on negotiations over a new labor deal. 

According to the Canadian Press, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) CEO Keith Creel told analysts on a recent conference call that coming to an agreement on a new deal is "going to be a challenge," warning that a strike sometime before the end of August is "probable." The union representing rail workers at Canadian National Railway (CN) and CPKC reauthorized a strike on June 20, giving them the authority to call for a work stoppage within 60 days. That authorization expires on August 20, and with Creel saying that the union and railways remain "far apart" on negotiations, the stage is set for a late-summer strike that would have wide-ranging impacts on trade across North America. 

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Any work stoppage must also wait until Canada's Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) finishes a review to determine whether critical shipments should be required to continue in the event of a strike. Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon is meeting with the union and railways on August 5 to discuss that review, stating on social media that "Canadians entrust these parties with operating key parts of our supply chain." 

"They must be keenly aware of the responsibility that comes with that trust," he added. 

The Railway Association of Canada says that more than half of the country's exports are moved by rail each year, worth an estimated $200 billion. A strike would stall those exports across a variety of industries, and potentially lead to backups at ports on either coast.