Import volumes at U.S. ports are expected to rebound in July, following months of shipping delays and canceled sailings caused by concerns over the Trump administration's trade war with China.

According to Global Port Tracker data released on July 9 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, monthly imports into the U.S. are expected to rise from 2.06 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in June to 2.36 million in July, before falling off to 2.08 million TEUs in August and 1.82 million in September. 

Import volumes at U.S. ports are also projected to decline year-over-year in each month between August and November, starting with a 10% dip in August, followed by a 19% decrease in each of September and October, and a 21% decline in November. The NRF noted that the low shipping volumes projected for the latter half of 2025 are primarily a result of concerns over tariffs, although the sizable year-over-year dips are also because of higher-than-normal import volumes in late 2024, when companies had sought to bring in inventory ahead of a potential strike at East and Gulf Coast ports.

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“The tariff situation remains highly fluid, and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold, noting that retailers are bringing as much inventory as they can in July to get ahead of President Trump's August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs against at least 14 countries spread primarily across Southeast Asia. Combined between that and recent threats to hit Brazil with 50% tariffs in retaliation for the ongoing legal case against former President Jair Bolsonaro, retailers have been forced to contend with a never-ending stream of "erratic policies and geopolitical volatility," said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett.