While President Trump's trade policies have upended global supply chains for months, it's not the tariffs themselves that have proven to be the biggest obstacle for businesses. Rather, it's the air of uncertainty created by Trump's constant flip-flopping, which has left businesses with little insight into how they should plan inventories, move freight, or set up their supply chains.

"There's just a big question mark over everyone's head right now," says Ashley Craig, who specializes in regulatory compliance and supply chain governance as a partner and attorney with law firm Venable LLP. "There's no confirmation of how the administration will proceed, and if it does proceed, will it stick to its decisions?"

As Craig points out, the opening months of the Trump administration have been littered with sudden threats of sweeping tariffs, subsequent pauses on tariffs right before they're scheduled to take effect, and then threats of even more levies. Each time that happens, a business is presented with a scenario where they have to either act quickly to adjust product strategies or shipping schedules before a new tariff is supposed to take hold, or risk waiting the situation out in anticipation of yet another policy delay at the 11th hour.

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A report released on May 28 by economic data firm PYMNTS shows that firsthand, with 40% of mid-sized goods and retail companies with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion having already postponed, canceled or reworked market strategies due to pressure from tariffs. In a separate survey of 60 leaders at mid-sized goods and retail firms, PYMNTS found that roughly 25% reported switching their product designs, pricing or go-to-market strategies, while another 14% said that they had delayed or canceled product development outright. 

Craig predicts that this will all lead into a "summer of discontent" for businesses, driven by continued frustration over a lack of consistency and predictability in the Trump administration's approach to trade, and the way in which it's kept businesses from making crucial decisions surrounding their product strategies, sourcing and manufacturing. More than that, it's created a period of "wait-and-see," he describes, where companies are hesitant to make dramatic changes to their supply chains, in fear of moving their operations to a country that could be subject to new tariffs at any moment. 

"Setting aside whether they support or don't support tariffs, the one commonality is that everyone wants stability," he says.

So, what would it take to bring that stability back to the world's supply chains? What businesses need most is a clear idea of when and how tariffs will actually come into force, says Richard Barnett, the CMO for Siemens subsidiary Supplyframe. The majority of large businesses can strategize and plan for increased costs from tariffs, he explains, but if they don't know when they'll occur, or even how high they'll be, there simply isn't a reliable way to chart a path forward.

For the moment, businesses have no way of knowing if or when the U.S. will come to terms with any of the 70-plus nations that could soon see some of the highest tariff rates in the world once Trump's 90-day pause expires in a matter of weeks. And while a potential trade deal with China would certainly ease that pressure to some extent, there are still plenty of questions left unanswered around longer term policy decisions.

"Clarity around timing is really important," Barnett says. "The more uncertainty, the more we're not sure what's going to happen after 90 days, and the further we're freezing clear decision making."

That clarity would also help reset confidence for consumers, manufacturers and suppliers, he adds, allowing all involved to move forward with a clear roadmap for the months to come. Whether that certainty will actually arrive sooner rather than later is another matter altogether, especially with an ongoing legal challenge to the bulk of Trump's tariffs that's currently awaiting a ruling in a federal appeals court. That challenge is expected to take months to fully resolve — especially if it ends up in front of the Supreme Court — and it threatens to throw yet another variable into an already-chaotic equation. 

Although that legal challenge is largely just background noise for businesses in the near term, it's also noise "they can't afford to ignore," says Pierre-Nicolas Disser, CEO of consumer products at quality control provider QIMA. 

"What this signals is more of the same: confusion," says Disser. "Companies can price around cost increases. What they can’t do is build a long-term supply strategy around volatility."

Global markets have reacted to that in kind too, with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development slashing its growth forecast for the world economy from 3.1% to 2.9%, while the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast by nearly a full percent combined between this and next year. In May, U.S. consumer confidence also slid to its second lowest level on record, according to data from the University of Michigan. At the same time, major brands have been raising prices for consumers, with June 4 data from the Federal Reserve showing that nearly three-quarters of service firms reported passing tariff costs onto customers in some way.

Until businesses gain a clearer picture of the administration's trade strategy and timeline, the cycle of uncertainty is likely to persist, keeping supply chains fragile, costs unpredictable, and decisions on hold. In the meantime, it remains unclear whether the metaphorical light at the end of the tunnel represents long-awaited relief from months of economic turmoil, or a train barreling down the tracks.