As 2015 came to a close, the results show that the European market has performed above expectations, according to Carlos Da Silva, manager for IHS Automotive's European light-vehicle sales forecast. The main reasons for this dynamism include economic improvement, better macro conditions, and a natural catch-up process after the longest sales downturn Europe has ever suffered. In addition, there has been a fair share of artificial support from government stimulus packages, OEM incentives and the use of tactical sales.
Last year was a good one in the mature car markets, though it was largely offset by a very poor showing for many of the world’s emerging markets. The net result is estimated to be a sub-par 1.5 percent growth in global auto sales – the slowest pace of growth since 2010 – once all numbers are reported and analyzed. However, sales forecasts from IHS Automotive -- part of IHS Inc. and a source of critical information and insight to the global automotive industry -- the outlook for 2016 is likely to be defined by smaller gains, but also less pain than 2015.
The Russian light-vehicle market has suffered its worst monthly decline of the year, which comes after a year of consistent accelerated falls in sales as a result of the collapse of the Russian economy, resulting from the weak ruble, sanctions from the EU and the U.S. and falling oil and gas prices. Sales in November fell by 42.7 percent year on year (y/y) to 131,572 units, which brought the year-to-date (YTD) sales momentum down further by 34.5 percent y/y to 1,454,253 units.
A draft agreement, reached between Iran and the P5+1 countries - China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany - which would see the former reduce its nuclear activities in return for the gradual ending of economic sanctions, would have a positive impact on the future of the Iranian automotive industry.
Premium audio system sales in new vehicles are expected to grow from just over 8.6 million units globally in 2014 to more than 11.6 million units in 2021, with branded speaker system sales expected to grow from more than 8.7 million units to 11.1 million units in the same time frame, according to the IHS Automotive forecasts for these systems.
The Russian light-vehicle market suffered a highly accelerated decline in sales in January 2015 due to the ongoing macroeconomic stress the market is facing, recording a 24.4 percent year-on-year decline to 115,390 units, according to the latest data released by the Association of European Businesses.
With 2015 off to a good start, IHS Automotive forecasts global automotive sales for 2015 to reach 88.6 million, an increase of 2.4 percent over 2014, continuing an unbroken five-year run of sales recovery and growth from the low point set in the depth of the Great Recession in 2009. However, a slowdown is being signaled with just two of the high-potential BRIC markets likely to see increased sales this year.
Passenger car demand in the European Union rose for the first time in six years during 2014, according to the latest data published by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). Registrations during the year grew by 5.7 percent year on year (y/y) to 12.55 million units. December was also the 16th month in succession of gains, with registrations having grown during the month by 4.7 percent y/y to 951,329 units.