If newly re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump goes on to impose the punitive new tariffs he has threatened on U.S. imports, economic growth in the U.K. growth is likely to be halved, a leading think tank warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said November 5 that the protectionist measures planned by Trump would result in weaker activity, rising inflation and higher interest rates from the Bank of England.

Ahmet Kaya, a NIESR economist, said that a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on goods from all other countries would result in a trade war that would lower U.K. growth by 0.7 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points in the first two years.

“The U.K. is a small, open economy and would be one of the countries most affected,” Kaya said. NIESR has estimated that, over two years, the U.K. inflation rate would be 3-4 points higher while interest rates would be 2-3 points higher.

In the absence of the Trump tariffs, NIESR forecast in a report published before the election results came in that the U.K. would grow by 1.2% in 2025 and by 1.4% in 2026, inflation settling at close to the government’s 2% target, and official interest rates falling from their current level of 5% to 3.25%.

Kaya said U.S. growth would be reduced by about 1.3% to 1.8% in the first two years of the tariffs coming into force, with the higher figure reflective of a scenario where affected countries imposed retaliatory tariffs of their own.