The World Trade Organization raised its 2025 forecast for global trade growth, but warned that trade will likely slow in 2026 as the broader, long-term impacts of U.S. tariffs take hold across the globe.

According to data released on October 7, the WTO expects the financial value of goods traded globally to expand by 2.4% this year, up from its previous estimate in August of 0.9%, thanks in large part to importers and exporters who have front-loaded shipments to get ahead of expected tariffs from the Trump administration. However, the WTO also cut its growth projection for 2026 from 1.8% to 0.5%, predicting that, "higher tariffs over time will weigh on trade."

"The full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding," said WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. "The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains."

Okonjo-Iweala also noted that, despite the uncertainty created by President Donald Trump's oft-chaotic trade policies, a "broader cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation" has largely been avoided so far, as many countries have sought to negotiate more favorable trade deals with the U.S. to avoid higher tariff rates. Still, the organization cautioned, the resilience of global trade will depend heavily on how governments manage upcoming tariff escalations, with particular risks tied to U.S.–China trade frictions and potential spillover effects on emerging markets.