Major U.S. ports are expected to see their first month-to-month increase in imported cargo volumes since mid-2025 in January, as retailers look to stock up on inventory ahead of February's Lunar New Year holiday in Asia.

According to Global Port Tracker data released on January 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, U.S. import volumes are forecast to come in around 2.1 million twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs) for the opening month of 2026, which would be a 6.6% increase over December 2025's total. However, that would still represent a 5.3% year-over-year dip, with additional declines expected in each of February (-4.6%), March (-12.4%), and April (-8.1%), driven in part by the ongoing economic uncertainty brought on by the Trump administration's tariff policies. 

"As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances," said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. "This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation."

The NRF predicts that import volumes will pick back up in the spring as the peak shipping season takes hold, starting with a 6.2% year-over-year increase in May. Stronger demand in late spring and early summer will also hinge on how retailers manage inventories built up ahead of Lunar New Year, as well as whether tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer spending and sourcing decisions.