Although the ongoing conflict in the Strait of the Hormuz has continued to disrupt global shipping, it's an early start to peak season demand that's been driving a recent increase in shipping rates. 

According to data from Freightos, transpacific shipping rates to the West Coast have more than doubled since mid-May, while Asia to Europe rates have been up 70-80%. Freightos says that those trends indicate that shippers have started to frontload shipments in anticipation of higher fuel surcharges in July, as well as in response to recent increases in manufacturer prices, and the impending July 9 expiration of the U.S. pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs.

The result has been an earlier start to the summer peak shipping season, which typically begins between late July and early August. An early start to the peak season could also mean an early end, Freightos noted, although delays at congested ports could delay that unwind period by weeks. The next test for the market will come in July, when carriers are expected introduce another round of rate increases.

In the meantime, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains in flux. Although transits through the waterway's smaller routes gradually started to pick up in late June, renewed attacks involving the U.S. and Iran have once again slowed commercial traffic through one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. The International Maritime Organization's evacuation plans for stranded vessels were also put on hold, after a vessel was attacked in the Gulf of Oman after exiting the strait.