The Class 8 heavy-duty truck and fleet industry prolonged its dialogue throughout 2018 regarding the prospects of electrification of vehicles, and how they stack up against diesel counterparts. While electrification has the potential to grow into a reality down the road, many in the industry remain devoted for the foreseeable future to improving the output of quality returns found in diesel.

There are copious reasons why electric trucks might continue to take a backseat when private transportation fleets and for-hire carriers are developing their truck procurement strategies. Fuel economy, cost of investment, range and charging-station organization are at the top of the list of trepidations for fleet managers.

In terms of electric or hydrogen fuel-cell trucks, only 4 percent of respondents said they are currently procuring these types of trucks, while 53 percent neither see the value nor will consider the technology for at least another 10 years. Nearly a quarter of respondents (21 percent) also said they believe electric or hydrogen fuel-cell trucks will never be widely used for over-the-road operations. As to their reasons, 39.4 percent said they won’t consider the technology because of limited fueling or charging station infrastructure, and 33.3 percent have concerns about the vehicle’s range or distance.

This was echoed recently in a report on Truck.com by Roger Nielsen, chief executive of Daimler Trucks North America: “Electric trucks have the potential to shift how goods are shipped regionally, but are far from ready for over-the-highway use because current batteries do not hold enough energy.” He went on to say that those in charge of procuring trucks are still unsure of alternative fuel technology, since they don’t know if the driving results will be as predictable as diesel, and the fear of the unknown is holding many back.

In fact, in a recent industry benchmark survey, fuel economy ranked second (36.7 percent) as a top motivator overall for truck replacement. This is especially important given that 86 percent have experienced a consistent increase in fuel economy in model years 2013 through 2018. The perspective is further underscored by the fact that the recent price of diesel has increased above what industry forecasts projected. According to the latest North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE) and its 2018 Annual Fleet Fuel Study, diesel recently increased to $3.28 per gallon, surpassing its projection of $2.72 in 2018.

Advocates of electrification point to the technology’s environmental benefits. However, many don’t fully realize the substantial gains diesel has made in these areas as well. Private fleets and for-hire organizations realize these benefits when they upgrade to the latest truck equipment available. An analysis of Class-8 truck utilization by Fleet Advantage found that companies can realize first-year savings of $26,687 when upgrading from a 2012 sleeper truck to a 2019 model (based on a diesel prices of $3.29 per gallon). This represents a 15.5-percent increase in savings compared with a similar analysis a year ago of upgrading to a 2018 model when diesel prices registered $2.57.

In addition to realizing considerably better cost savings from fuel economy gains, fleets will also achieve an estimated 18-percent reduction in CO₂ emissions and 46-percent reduction in NOx output, when upgrading from a 2012 model year sleeper to a new 2019 unit.

The industry will continue to calculate electrification as a possible asset for the transport of goods in support of the economy — and should take a hard look. However, the data continues to support diesel as the primary option for transportation, as newer truck technology makes great strides in improving fuel economy and lowering emissions. Coupled with lifecycle asset-management strategies that leverage flexible lease models that help reduce the total cost of ownership and help upgrade into newer technology every three to four years, diesel will remain the most economically viable option for the foreseeable future.

Brian Holland is president and chief financial officer of Fleet Advantage, a provider of truck fleet business analytics, equipment financing and lifecycle cost management.