More than half of supply chain executives don’t expect a "return to normal" until the first half of 2024 or beyond, according to a new survey by Carl Marks Advisors, in partnership with SupplyChainBrain.

Meanwhile, 22% say they expect disruptions to continue until the second half of 2023, as the world recovers from the massive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also see a number of other factors preventing a return to supply chain stability, most notably the war in Ukraine (30%) and labor concerns (24%).

“In this environment, organizations will need to continue to be nimble, and be especially attentive to inventory levels,” said Peter Keogh managing director of Carl Marks Advisors.

According to the survey, 75% of supply chain executives said revenues at their company had been either negatively or very negatively impacted over the past year by supply chain issues. Ocean shipping was by far the leading broken transportation and logistics link, at 68%. The impact of the disruptions has been severe: 80% of respondents said their supply chain costs have risen by between 20-60% between December 2020 and December of 2022.

Looking forward, more than two-thirds of supply chain executives said they are “very concerned” that the U.S. economy could tilt into a recession over the next 12 months as a result of rising interest rates, high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, and a resultant pull-back in consumer confidence.