The United States faces a default sometime this summer or early fall if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt ceiling, a Washington think tank warned on February 22.

According to the New York Times, the projection from the Bipartisan Policy Center is the latest estimate of when the government could run out of cash to pay its bills. The nation, which borrows huge sums to help pay for everything from military salaries to Social Security benefits, hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing cap on January 19.

In early February, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected that the Treasury Department’s ability to prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt could be exhausted between July and September. That estimate was slightly more favorable than what Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen suggested when she told Congress in January that her department’s ability to keep financing the country’s obligations could be exhausted in June.

The day when the United States runs out of cash depends largely on how much the Treasury Department collects in 2022 tax revenue, the Bipartisan Policy Center said. The group warned that moment could be “too close for comfort” given the vagaries around tax receipts.

Yellen has urged Congress to raise or suspend the debt limit, though it remains unclear how quick or easy it would be to do that. Republican lawmakers have insisted that President Biden agree to undefined spending cuts to win their votes to raise the cap, arguing that the borrowing binge is putting the United States on a path to fiscal disaster. President Biden has insisted that he will not negotiate spending cuts as part of any debt limit legislation, saying that the cap has to be raised to fund obligations that Congress — including Republicans — have already approved.