Even a limited strike by United Auto Workers (UAW) would have disastrous effects on the deeper tiers of the automotive manufacturing supply chain, said Jeff Rightmer, professor of global supply chain at Wayne State University in Detroit during a September 12 interview with National Public Radio’s Morning Edition host, Steve Inskeep.

“The Tier 1s, or the top-level suppliers, they'll probably have taken measures already — cut discretionary spending, for example. But the longer it goes on, they could start running into furloughs and things like that,” said Rightmer. “What it really hits are the lower-level suppliers, the twos, the threes. They're typically much smaller, maybe even family-run, and the margins are razor thin. So a disruption really throws them into turmoil. And you could see, possibly, some of them just close up shop and liquidate.”

The strike deadline set by the United Auto Workers union, which is negotiating with the so-called Detroit Three automakers — General Motors, Ford Motor Company, and Chrysler (now Stellantis North America) — is September 14, a minute before midnight. 

Rightmer said he expected a strike against at least one of the automakers. “Normally, you want to be the first one to get the deal done, and then that's kind of the pattern for the rest of the industry. And the UAW has kind of thrown that out the window this year,” Rightmer said. 

He added that the automakers share suppliers, so any impact on them could affect them even if their own workers were not on strike. 

“Chrysler at that point had to declare their Top 100 suppliers. Ninety percent of those suppliers served at least one of the other two Detroit Three, and then 80% probably throughout the supply chain for all of the automakers, transplants included.”

Around 150,000 UAW members work at General Motors, Ford and Stellantis. ABC News reports that members in several states have threatened to walk off their jobs in the coming days unless auto companies meet their demands over higher wages and more robust benefits.