Ship capacity transiting through the Panama Canal was 10% lower between September 2024 and January 2025 than the 2019-22 average, measured in deadweight tonnes, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).

Even though there were no transit restrictions during this period, transits of dry bulk, LNG and, to a lesser extent, tanker ships have not recovered to their historical levels after a period, from June to September 2024, when low water levels at feeder Gatun Lake necessitated restrictions to the number and drafts of ships using the canal.  

“Transit fees, changes in trade patterns and the establishment of a new normal could all be keeping ships from fully returning to the canal,“ Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO, said in a February 6 statement. “Furthermore, for the sectors which haven’t fully returned, this has resulted in increased tonne-mile demand as sailing distances have increased. Instead of transiting through the canal, ships sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn.” 

BIMCO, the trade association for shipowners, charterers, shipbrokers and agents, said that, in the dry bulk sector, a change in trade patterns for U.S. grains, the largest cargo transiting through the canal, has contributed to a reduction in Panama Canal transits. The U.S. is increasingly exporting grains from ports on the U.S. West Coast, bypassing the canal. Since September, grain shipments from the US West Coast to ports in the Pacific have risen 21% year-on-year, whereas shipments from the Gulf have fallen 6% year-on-year.

Coal cargoes also remain significantly below pre-restriction levels, as ships have largely continued to favor alternative routes. Conversely, minor bulk cargoes transiting the canal are nearing pre-restrictions levels, driven by stronger steel and fertilizer cargoes.

In the LNG sector, ships have hardly returned to the Panama Canal, because of safety concerns related to its cargo, the BIMCO statement said. Few transit slots are offered to the sector, and no overnight transits are allowed. Consequently, routes around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn have been perceived as more reliable and flexible.