U.S. consumers have absorbed an estimated 22% of costs from Trump administration tariffs through June 2025, with that share projected to rise to 67% by October.

According to a research note released by Goldman Sachs on August 10, U.S. businesses have taken on 64% of tariff costs so far this year, with foreign exporters bearing the remaining 14%. Consumer prices have also risen across virtually every sector, including a 37% increase for household appliances, 25% for information processing equipment, 27% for furniture and furnishings, and 19% for tools and gardening equipment.

Goldman calculates that tariffs have contributed roughly 0.20 percentage points to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve uses to measure inflation for the price of consumer goods. Another 0.16% bump is projected for July, followed by a 0.5% increase between August and December. By the end of the year, Goldman expects the PCE inflation index to have risen by 3.2% year-over-year, outpacing the Federal Reserve's yearly target of 2%. 

Smaller businesses have warned of outsized tariff impacts as well. In an August 1 blog post, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated that Trump tariffs that took effect on August 7 will cost American small businesses a combined $202 billion annually. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates also project this year's import volumes at the country's major container ports to come in 5.6% below 2024's totals. 

“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers," said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett in an August 8 release.