Recent progress on a trade deal between the U.S. and China isn't expected to reverse declining ocean container freight rates in 2026, says market analytics platform Xeneta. 

“The U.S.-China truce is a positive development, but it will not suddenly breathe life into weakening ocean container shipping demand on Transpacific trades," said Emily Stausbøll, the senior shipping analyst for Xeneta. 

On October 30, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had made "amazing" progress on a 12-month trade truce, which would include a 10% reduction in tariffs against Chinese goods, a resumption of U.S. soybean sales to China, and short-term access for the U.S. to Chinese rare earth minerals. 

Given that a 12-month truce still doesn't afford the promise of long-term certainty — and the fact that no official agreement has even been signed yet — Xeneta expects freight rates to continue falling well into the new year. Xeneta estimates that average spot rates from China to the U.S. West Coast were down nearly 60% year-over-year through the first 10 months of 2025, while spot rates to the U.S. East Coast were down almost 50%. Xeneta also projects that global average spot rates could continue falling by as much as 25% by the end of 2026.

“This agreement is temporary and it lacks detail, so shippers looking to make long term supply chain decisions are left in limbo," Stausbøll explained. "It takes longer than 12 months to set up manufacturing facilities in another nation if a shipper wants to shift supply chains out of China."

Despite the progress on talks between the U.S. and China, analysts believe that the shipping industry is bracing for another difficult year. And, with vessel capacity continuing to outpace demand and trade policy still up in the air, carriers are unlikely to see meaningful pricing power return anytime soon, Xeneta warned. Instead, shippers are expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach on long-term network changes, leaving ocean freight markets stuck in a holding pattern in 2026.