Japan’s exports to the U.S. rose for the first time since Donald Trump announced baseline tariffs in early April, the latest indication that economies are faring better than expected in a more protectionist global trade environment.

The turnaround in shipments to the U.S. helped power the biggest gain in overall exports since February. That supports the Bank of Japan’s view that uncertainties over the impact of the duties have eased, helping pave the way for a widely expected interest rate hike later this week.

The gains in U.S. exports also helped outweigh a fall in the value of merchandise heading to China. While it’s still unclear how much the ongoing diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Tokyo might affect trade, data on shipments will be closely watched for any signs that friction is weighing on commerce between Asia’s two largest economies.

The report, released by the Finance Ministry on December 17, showed exports overall gained 6.1% in November from a year earlier, led by semiconductor parts and medical goods. That beat economist forecasts as shipments to the U.S. and the EU jumped 8.8% and 19.6% respectively.

“I see the impact from U.S. tariffs as largely settled down,” said Yutaro Suzuki, an economist at Daiwa Securities. “Shipments to America have risen in both value and volume, as companies have resumed exports following an easing of tariff uncertainties.”

Overall, Japan’s trade balance was in the black on an unadjusted basis, with a ¥322.3 billion ($2.1 billion) surplus. Imports rose 1.3%, slightly below a consensus estimate. Japan’s trade surplus against the U.S. was ¥739.8 billion, increasing by 11.3% from a year ago. The balance has stayed in the black since Trump began his second term in January, meaning the trade imbalance has stayed in place despite the president’s efforts to close the gap with higher tariffs. 

Exports of Japanese cars and their parts to the U.S. rose in November after Washington reduced its tariffs on them to 15% from over 25% in mid-September. The U.S. has also set the levy on many other products at the same rate. 

The value of car shipments to America increased 1.5% while the number of exported units jumped by 7.7%. That difference has been an ongoing pattern that suggests Japanese automakers are still sacrificing profits by cutting prices to preserve market share.

Still, the unit price of Japanese cars shipped to the U.S. last month rose back above the ¥4 million mark for the first time since April when Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were first announced. All in all the figures suggest that carmakers are calibrating their pricing in response to changes in trade conditions as they look to weather the impact of the duties.

The latest data suggest that for all the concern of trade dragging on the economy, U.S. tariffs haven’t buckled Japan’s trade performance.

“Exports turned out fairly strong in November,” said Suzuki. “External demand in the October to December quarter could be one factor supporting the Japanese economy.”

While trade with Washington improved, the data showed exports to China dropped 2.4%, weighed down by falls in chip-making machinery and non-ferrous metals. The outlook for trade with Beijing faces uncertainty amid the diplomatic dispute over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on a hypothetical Taiwan contingency. The two sides have been embroiled in a dispute since early November that’s included Chinese warnings against traveling to Japan among other steps.

While exports to the U.S. were larger, China is still Japan’s largest trading partner. The report showed the trade balance with China is already on track to hit its highest ever annual deficit, underscoring Tokyo’s reliance on commerce with Beijing.

Still, short of the kind of boycott of Japanese goods seen in a previous dispute over a decade ago, economists don’t see a major blow to trade for the time being. Weakness in China’s economy may be more of a factor weighing on trade.

Figures released earlier in the week showed China’s investment slumping further in November and retail sales expanding at their weakest pace since the crash caused by COVID.

“I don’t expect the negative impact of worsening Japan-China relations to appear in trade in a significant way going forward,” said Suzuki. “Rather, exports to China are likely to move more in line with China’s economic fundamentals.”