Maersk says that it could see its earnings cut in half in 2026, with the gradual return of shipping to the Red Sea expected to lead to over-capacity in the ocean carrier market, which in turn will drag down freight rates in the months to come.

According to Reuters, Maersk predicts its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to come in between $4.5 billion and $7 billion this year, down from the $9.53 billion the company saw in 2025. Should that come to pass, it would represent the carrier's first operating loss in a decade, Financial Times reports.

The resumption of commercial shipping traffic through the Red Sea continues to loom large over the year's outlook for Maersk and its competitors. And while reopening the vital trade route is generally viewed as a positive for the freight industry, it could also have some other unintended consequences.

“New ships are coming in, and at the same time, shipping through the Red Sea is likely to reopen, which will free up ship capacity," said Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc at a February 5 press conference. "All of this will put pressure on freight rates this year."

Clerc expects the return of Red Sea shipping to free up 6-7% of global container shipping capacity in 2026. That added capacity, combined with a strong orderbook of new vessels set to enter service, could leave the container market facing an oversupply that could strain finances for the world's biggest carriers. In the face of that pressure, Maersk said that it plans to cut back its share buyback program, and slash 1,000 administrative jobs.

The situation in the Red Sea also remains far from stable. In late January, Houthi rebels threatened to resume attacks in the region, in the wake of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Despite those threats, Maersk has pushed forward on resuming routes through the area, and by mid February, expects to transition its ME11 route — which connects India and the Middle East to Europe — back through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.