While container shipping is expected to stay on a fairly steady footing in 2026, ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea region continue to loom large over carriers' network planning, as well as the broader balance between vessel supply and demand.

According to a report from shipping association BIMCO, demand for container ships is expected to grow by 2.5%-3.5% in both 2026 and 2027, while the global fleet is set to grow at roughly 3% in 2026, and 3.5% the following year. However, that outlook could shift dramatically depending on when regular shipping volumes return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

“While our forecast indicates mostly stable market conditions, several uncertainties remain," said BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen. "In particular, the possibility of a return to Suez Canal routings looms large over the market outlook."

If carriers return to those routes in large numbers, ship demand could drop by around 10%, as shorter voyages free up capacity, BIMCO estimates. CMA CGM says that it's already planning to send its India-Mediterranean Express service fully back through the Suez Canal starting in January, while its Mediterranean-South Asia service will use the canal on the back-haul leg of the route. Carrier Ocean Network Express also announced on December 16 that it plans to launch a new Red Sea-China service starting January 15, 2026.

Rasmussen warned that the broader economy could shift quickly as well, noting that up to 70% of U.S. growth in 2025 could be tied to heavy investments in artificial intelligence and rising tech stock prices. A sharp downturn there, he said, would likely spill into global trade, and even small changes in ship recycling or sailing speeds could further tip the balance, turning a stable market into one with too much capacity.