Eric Heath, managing director with Bluejay Advisors, observes recent improvement in the state of the freight market — but says the story isn’t so simple.

Three months ago, Heath wrote that the condition of the freight and logistics market was “the most constructive in two years, but more nuanced than a simple rate-recovery story.”

Now, deep into the second quarter of the year, Heath sees “a supply-driven recovery” underway, one in which large amounts of truck capacity are leaving the market, either through bankruptcy or difficulties meeting new regulatory measures such as a crackdown by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration on non-citizens holding commercial drivers’ licenses. Also of concern to the freight sector is the recent unanimous decision of the U.S. Supreme Court to hold freight brokers liable for failing to exercise reasonable care in the vetting of carriers with a history of safety violations.

Major carriers are now able to impose double-digit increases in pricing, with spot rates up 16% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, Heath notes, adding that he expects the trend to continue through the rest of the year.

Rising fuel prices are a major driver of inflation, even as carriers are able to “shift pricing dynamics in their favor.” Some large publicly traded carriers have been operating at a loss over the last couple of years, essentially subsidizing the cost of freight delivery during that time.

Recovery in the freight sector is spurring renewed interest in mergers and acquisitions, both for asset-owning and “asset-light” entities, Heath says. “It’s really an opportunity for those with the right balance sheets to expand very quickly.” Founder-owned and private-equity assets, which had to hold off on exiting their investment positions in difficult times, will now be entering the M&A market in a major way.