Hamish Brewer, chief executive officer of JDA Software, was giving a speech at the Economic Club of Phoenix last year, when the topic of global inventory levels came up. The question he posed: How much stuff is currently in transit or socked away in warehouses the world over? The answer: Nobody really knows.

From the smallest business decisions to the largest ones, risk influences all that we do. But taking a risk is not exactly like spinning a roulette wheel, where luck is the primary ingredient for success. With use of the right tools, risks can carefully be calculated, controlled and managed, greatly reducing the variable of bad luck.

Recently, I have been speaking about the global supply chain talent shortage in countries with over a 30-percent unemployment rate. The discussion of the lack of supply chain talent in countries where the attendees are struggling to find high-paying jobs feels awkward. For many, it almost seems surreal. They are fighting so hard for jobs for their families and friends. They are consumed by the fight. To hear someone talking about a talent gap in a field of high-paying jobs with good benefits is difficult for them to conceive. But, it is true.

Just as China leads the world in economic growth, consumer optimism in China is stronger than in the rest of the world.

A combination of rebounding sales and an unprecedented number of new models in the works has stretched the auto parts supply chain so taut that the entire industry is holding its collective breath that it does not snap and jeopardize the recovery.