Not so long ago, supply chain disruptions were limited to a dockyard strike or a storm off the Atlantic Coast. Now vulnerabilities are everywhere: A pandemic shuts down entire factories, tariffs shift overnight, and a drought in one country drives up metal costs in another.

And as the threats have grown and multiplied, the world’s supply chains — those vast, invisible networks that make modern communication, transportation and medical care possible — have become more fragile. Consider the critical materials used to make many of those items. The very alloys found in our airplanes and consumer technologies often depend on a single element mined in a single region of the world. What happens if that element is suddenly unavailable or costs too much? 

These risks are forcing manufacturers to rethink their supply chains, exploring how to secure alternative materials without sacrificing performance or profitability. One promising solution is physics-based digital simulation, an advanced approach to materials design that helps engineers predict how alloys will perform before they’re made. This technology is now emerging as a powerful tool for building more resilient and efficient supply chains.

The strength of a supply chain often depends on the availability of its raw materials. Even when production happens domestically, many of the metals and alloying elements essential to that process still come from overseas. This dependence on a few critical sources leaves manufacturers vulnerable to disruptions that can ripple through entire industries.

Take Ti64, one of the most widely used titanium alloys, found in industries from aerospace to medical devices. This alloy gets its strength and corrosion resistance from a mix of titanium, aluminum and vanadium — but vanadium is in short supply in the U.S. This shortage drives interest in using less of it or recycling it. 

Ti64 is typically 6% aluminum and 4% vanadium, but manufacturers can adjust those ratios slightly while still maintaining acceptable performance. However, the question remains: How far can we push those limits without sacrificing performance?

The answer lies in integrated computational materials engineering (ICME), a proven methodology developed at the beginning of this century that brings together a vast collective knowledge of material properties and behavior into a unified, simulation-based design process. 

Instead of going through the time- and resource-intensive process of trial and error, which dominated the development of new materials prior to the 21st century, ICME allows engineers to use existing materials models and advanced simulations to predict how a material will perform under real-world conditions. 

In the case of Ti64, this approach to materials design can tell a manufacturer how little vanadium they will need to achieve the performance they are looking for. 

Strengthening a Vulnerable Supply Chain

Wide-scale adoption of this technology would be a drastic departure for those who have relied on trial-and-error, but the groundwork is being laid for just such a transition. Students now are learning to use tools that leverage ICME and companies on the forefront of innovation are leaning into these methods.  

The U.S. government is also leaning in, and has provided a model for doing so at scale as it is grappling with the vulnerabilities around its shipbuilding industry. Once home to dozens of foundries producing the massive castings and forgings needed for ships, the nation now has only a few remaining.

This is why President Donald Trump issued an executive order that seeks to bolster the industry through greater investment and a critical examination of U.S. trade policy with China. That new policy, aided by a $29 billion allocation for shipbuilding in the most recent federal budget, will add to an effort already underway to supercharge the defense industry through the application of advanced materials development.  

In 2024, the Innovation Capability and Modernization (ICAM) and Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment (IBAS) offices of the Department of Defense launched the Manufacturing Analysis Simulation Tools (MAST) program. This six-year, public-private initiative is focused on rebuilding domestic capacity by equipping manufacturers with advanced simulation tools that support faster, more reliable production of novel materials — especially for high-yield steels used in shipbuilding and other critical defense applications.

By replacing outdated, trial-and-error methods with predictive digital modeling, MAST allows engineers to anticipate material performance. The intended result: fewer bottlenecks, less waste and a stronger, more responsive industrial base that can meet the needs of both national defense and high-performance commercial sectors.

Establishing a truly resilient manufacturing base is going to require a tremendous amount of ingenuity, experimentation and investment. This goes beyond new facilities and hardware; it’s about rethinking how we design and value materials themselves. 

The lessons from programs like MAST show that a smarter, more connected approach to materials design can close long-standing gaps in the supply chain. But ultimately, the responsibility lies with every manufacturer to understand their own vulnerabilities, and invest in knowledge as much as equipment. The next generation of supply chains will belong to those who treat materials science not as an afterthought, but as a strategic advantage.

Jason Sebastian is executive vice president of market operations at QuesTek Innovations LLC.