The multinationals have not asked to be set free. Instead, the Commerce Ministry raised the idea of dropping the requirement last autumn, fearing that industrialized nations would use the restrictive rules as justification for protectionism someday if China starts exporting large numbers of cars. But the big state-owned companies are less interested in exports than in having the multinationals tied to their partners indefinitely — and collecting the sizable profits that come with those relationships.

The industry is not entirely in agreement. Slightly smaller automakers started by entrepreneurs do not have the same incentives to maintain the status quo since they generally don’t have joint venture partners. They are also much more eager to move into foreign markets, through exports and overseas acquisitions.

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