Import cargo volumes are expected to once again climb towards an August 2023 peak at major container ports across the United States according to the Global Port Tracker report released July 7 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

During June, U.S. ports were expected to handle 1.86 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), a 17.5% year-on-year decline. Those numbers are projected to increase to 1.94 million units during July and 2.03 million units in August. After that, cargo import volumes at U.S. ports are expected to steadily decline throughout the remainder of 2023.

Cargo volume estimates will likely peak in August because the NRF and Hackett Associates have been closely monitoring the labor negotiations at Canadian ports as well as the potential Teamsters strike against UPS.

The Canadian port strike could impact “some U.S. retailers” that receive their merchandise through Canada, causing a ripple effect at other ports, according to NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. Simultaneously, suppliers’ abilities to move goods from ports to stores could also be impacted if UPS and the teamsters cannot reach a new collective bargaining agreement before the end of July.

“We were relieved that labor and management at West Coast ports reached a tentative agreement last month, but that doesn’t mean supply chain disruptions are over,” Gold said. “The port strike affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert shouldn’t have a major impact here but could affect some U.S. retailers whose merchandise comes in through Canada and could have a potential ripple effect at other ports. Meanwhile, the ability to move goods from U.S. ports to stores could be impacted if UPS and the Teamsters don’t resolve their differences before their contract expires at the end of the month. Seamless supply chains are critical for retailers as we head into the peak shipping season for the winter holidays.”

Even though the Global Port Tracker has not provided its volume forecast for the entirety of 2023, the total number of TEUs handled at U.S. ports through the first nine months of the year is down 17.6% compared to the same period during 2022.