After hitting their expected peak for 2023, import cargo volumes for the U.S.’s major container ports are now expected to gradually slow into the holiday season, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Global Port Tracker report published October 10.

Inbound volumes at U.S. ports were expected to reach 2 million TEU in August and stay at that level through October, according to the NRF. Instead, ports only handled 1.96 million TEU in August, a 13.5% year-over-year decrease.

“Cargo volumes will still be strong the rest of the year, but not as high as we expected a month ago,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF's vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “Retailers stocked up early this year as a safeguard against supply chain labor issues and are well-situated to meet consumer demand. Shoppers are spending more than they did last year, but the rate of growth we’ve seen the past couple of years has slowed and retailers are working to strike the right balance of supply and demand.”

The NRF predicts the U.S. will handle 22.1 million TEU overall in 2023, which would be a 13.5% decrease from 2022.