A report from warehouse robotics vendor GreyOrange, “Eye on Inventory,” has shown that tariffs and a rocky economy have already translated to empty shelves, frustrated customers and overburdened staff in U.S. retail stores.

“2025 might be the most unpredictable holiday shopping season since COVID,” say the authors of the report, released September 25, which has also prompted the Guardian to conduct an open-invitation online survey of shoppers and retail workers, regarding their experiences.  

GreyOrange, which offers artificial intelligence and robotics for warehouse automation, as well as store inventory management software, says that, while most tariff analysis has explored the macroeconomic consequences, the day-to-day impact inside retail stores has been harder to quantify. So, in July, the company surveyed 500 middle or senior managers of a range of retail stores, including general merchandise, grocery and apparel, about what they’re seeing in their stores and on their shelves since the tariffs were introduced.

The actual tariffs that apply to any given sector are hard to pin down, as President Donald Trump constantly changes his mind about the hard percentages on imports from foreign countries, as well as industry-specific levies and exemptions. The Economist on October 8 said that, in April, America’s average tariff rate was estimated to be near 30%; today the same models put it closer to 18%.  

In any case, The Economist reckons, tariffs are adding around 0.3 percentage points to inflation, and employment has weakened in tariff-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and retail. For many U.S. businesses — and their suppliers abroad — some of the worst effects come from the uncertainty around America’s experiment with economic isolationism. Capex investments are stalled; hiring is slowed. “Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal,” said the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, on October 8.

Read More: Tariffs and Deportations – Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing?

The GreyOrange survey found that tariffs are disrupting retail stock, specifically. Store managers report more empty shelves, lower sales and more stock outs since April 2025, when the tariff rollercoaster began. “HQs have handed managers instructions to cut labor, reduce inventory and raise prices,” the report warns. Further, respondents said that staffing cuts impact store productivity, as stores are skipping daily tasks because they lack workers to complete them.

“The survey uncovers an industry in transition. As brands restructure their supply chains, customers and retail managers notice those changes in the aisles,” the report’s authors say. “At its core, the data underscores how inventory issues, exacerbated by tariffs and economic uncertainty, ripple outward to shape customer experience, daily store operations, and sales.”