Economic optimism across the global business community fell by 6.5% regarding the third quarter of 2025, as executives remain apprehensive regarding "persistent trade frictions" and ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet regularly surveys executives to gauge their sentiments related to business optimism, supply chain continuity and financial confidence for the upcoming fiscal quarter. In D&B's most recent survey of 10,000 executives, 54% of business leaders said that they expect global trade tensions to either remain unchanged or intensify in Q3, while less than half said that they anticipate a de-escalation through formal or informal trade deals. That's led to what D&B International president Neeraj Sahai described as a "significant shift in business risk appetite," where businesses have sought to re-evaluate their investment priorities and focus on resilience, in order to guard against growing uncertainty. 

Optimism surrounding supply chain continuity in Q3 also dipped by 9.7% year-over-year, and has fallen 18.6% year-to-date. And as the Trump administration has sought to aggressively apply tariffs to a number of trade partners, more than half of businesses surveyed by D&B said that they are actively seeking alternative markets or partners beyond the U.S. Those concerns have also been heightened as the conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, casting doubt on the reliability of key trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

"Businesses should look to accelerate strategic shifts in their supply chains," said D&B global chief economist Arun Singh. "Trade frictions, tariff risks and regulatory volatility are reinforcing the case for friendshoring, nearshoring and multi-sourcing as essential risk-mitigation strategies."

D&B has tracked dips in business optimism in each quarter in 2025, including a 12.9% drop in Q1 and a 1.3% decrease in Q2.