As the holiday shopping season approaches, U.S. consumers will soon face some difficult choices about what they'll be able to afford to put under the Christmas tree come December.

"Prepare to see fewer options, pay more money, and experience shopping habits that won't resemble the usual end-of-year shopping," says Catherine O'Toole, the digital marketing director for e-commerce platform Zenventory.

Early in the year, businesses sought to absorb tariff costs in their margins to avoid disrupting sales and alienating customers, with U.S. consumers taking on just 22% of the added financial burden. By midyear, shrinking profit margins, depleted pre-tariff inventories, and rising import costs left companies with little room to shield shoppers, setting the stage for consumers to take on up to 67% of added tariff costs by October, according to an August 10 research note from Goldman Sachs. 

Goldman calculates that Trump administration tariffs this year have contributed 0.20 percentage points to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve uses to measure inflation for the price of consumer goods. Goldman projects the PCE index to have risen by another 0.16% in July, then by 0.5% between August and December, adding up to an eye-watering 3.2% year-over-year for all of 2025.

"Macro-economically, it's undeniably a more expensive world," says Matt Lekstutis, the director for supply chain consultancy Efficio.

2025 has been a complicated year for supply chains everywhere, Lekstutis points out, where retailers have had to adjust to the moving target represented by President Trump's tariff policies, and to place bets on what inventory to bring in en masse ahead of ever-shifting White House deadlines. That approach saw the Port of Los Angeles record its busiest month for cargo volumes in its 117-year history in July, as businesses rushed shipments in ahead of the Trump administration's August 7 deadline for reciprocal tariffs against dozens of nations. For all but one month after that deadline, the National Retail Federation is projecting double-digit year-over-year dips in cargo volumes to U.S. ports, highlighting how the front-loaded demand will soon leave a hole in the pipeline that retailers will be contending with for the rest of the year.

Ultimately, the prices and supplies of certain items during the upcoming holiday shopping season will rely heavily on whether businesses made the right bets prior to August. Even then, "the casino has gotten a little more complicated," Lekstutis says.

"Supply chain has always been a gambling man's game — it's about placing bets, and anticipating demand and probabilities of producing things on time," he explains. "But, we've moved from playing with a six-sided die to a 'Dungeons and Dragons' 20-sided die."

That gamble has direct consequences for U.S. households too. If retailers miscalculated, shoppers could face sparser shelves for popular items like toys and electronics, or end up paying more as businesses pass along tariff costs. In the wake of August's reciprocal tariffs, many businesses are also going to be hesitant to quickly restock dwindling inventories for items that now face considerably higher duties, squeezing consumers at both ends. That leaves shoppers paying more for everyday gifts and struggling to find the hottest items in stock, likely turning the year’s busiest shopping season into one of frustration and restraint.

Retailers, meanwhile, are scrambling to manage expectations. According to a Deloitte survey of 50 retail industry buyers taken in May and June, 78% said that they're concerned about securing enough inventory for the holiday season, while 76% were worried about issues with supplier reliability. Another 76% expect consumers to only make discretionary purchases around promotional periods, demonstrating how cautious spending patterns are forcing retailers to lean more on targeted discounts and tightly-managed product spreads to drive sales.

These impacts could also linger well past the holiday shopping season and into 2026, warns Brendan Lease, the director of product marketing at 3PL provider Radial.

"Tariff policy can change overnight, but supply chains move slower," he says.

Even if the Trump administration's tariff policies were miraculously reversed in January, the relief wouldn’t reach store shelves for months. Holiday inventories were ordered months in advance, and any shipments booked under higher freight and duty costs will continue arriving well into the first quarter of 2026. That lag all but guarantees that consumers will face elevated prices and leaner selections long after the holiday rush, as retailers work through stock already burdened by tariffs. Add in the built-in manufacturing and shipping slowdown created by China's Lunar New Year in late-January, and it's a recipe for an extended period of shortages, supply bottlenecks and stubbornly high prices.

At least for this holiday season, what was once the season of abundance may instead feel like one of triage, where both retailers and consumers make hard choices about what can be afforded. And unless luck holds, the wagers made this year could weigh on store shelves and household budgets long after the holidays are over.