Imports of goods and services into the U.S. dipped by more than 5% in August, and U.S. exports fell by roughly 0.3% from July to August, as trading partners bought fewer American-made cars, gold and other consumer products, and Trump administration tariffs have hampered trade.

According to The New York Times, data released by the Commerce Department on November 19 showed how U.S. businesses have reacted to hefty tariffs by slowing down their purchases of foreign-made industrial supplies, pharmaceutical ingredients, machinery and telecom equipment. President Donald Trump's levies on imports from more than 90 countries took effect on August 7. 

Those tariffs were initially implemented as part of Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" announcement in April, after which the White House sought to negotiate trade deals with dozens of nations. Although agreements were reached with a handful of countries in the ensuing months, tariff rates still ended up ranging between 15% on the low end for Bolivia, Ecuador, Iceland and Nigeria, and 50% at the upper end for Brazil. The Yale Budget Lab (YBL) estimates that the average effective tariff rate for the U.S. now sits just below 18%, the highest the country has seen since 1934. 

Looking ahead, the YBL predicts that Trump's tariffs will slow U.S. GDP growth by 0.5% in both 2025 and 2026, and lead to a 0.7% increase in the country's unemployment rate by the end of 2026. That scenario could change significantly if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, with the YBL predicting a more modest 0.1% slowing of U.S. GDP growth in that event. The Tax Foundation also estimates that Trump's tariffs amount to an average tax increase per U.S. household of $1,200 in 2025, and $1,600 in 2026. 

Headed into the holiday shopping season, consumer confidence has waned as tariffs have strained budgets. According to data from Lending Tree, current U.S. levies have added an estimated $40.6 billion burden to winter holiday gift shopping, with consumers shouldering more than 70% of those costs. That breaks down to an extra $132 per shopper, Lending Tree estimates.