“As an economist, I’m going to predict a recession... and be wrong again,” joked Mark Mathews, chief economist for the National Retail Federation, at a press briefing panel on consumer trends in 2026 at the NRF’s 26 Retail’s Big Show in New York City on January 13.  

But, to 13-39-year-olds, it’s no joke.  

Late-millennials, Gen Z and Gen Alpha have consistently polled as expecting an imminent major recession or economic disaster for the last five years, according to fellow panelist MaryLeigh Bliss, chief content officer at YPulse, a market research firm focused on the under-40s. 

Bliss said the firm has identified huge shifts in terms of the attitude and points-of-view of younger consumers. “We see the mentality of: 'This is terrible and the world is aflame, but I’m still going to spend,' or 'I’m actually going to spend because of that,'” she said. “They don’t have a reason to save for the future, so they may as well spend now.” 

Bliss said this has caused habits such as “doomspending,” (in line with doomscrolling and doomsaving). “They see something upsetting online, and then buy something to make themselves feel better, to get that dopamine hit," she explained.

While spending money to feel good is nothing new, the way the younger generations are doing it has changed. It’s mostly about little treats and splurges, she said, and food dominates, followed by cosmetics for females, and small experiences, such as concerts rather than travel, for males. 

Retailers could get whiplash trying to keep up with youthful consumer spending habits, but they better get good at it as the upcoming generations emerge as mature consumers, the panelists agreed. “People are still going to spend; it’s just how they’re going to spend,” said Peter Volberding, senior director, data analytics at Pyxis by Bain & Company.  

The path to making an actual purchase is now much more complex and “non-linear,” than in the past, said Mathews. “Yes, they broke the marketing funnel,” quipped Bliss.  

“Agentic AI shopping is going to be huge,” said Maria Arand, director, office of the customer at 84.51°, a subsidiary of Kroger. 

That trend will accelerate even faster than social-media-driven purchases, such as on TikTok Shop, she predicted. But, on the other hand, real-life experiences in stores and malls are attractive again, even if they are unlikely to challenge the absolute dominance of online shopping for people born after 1985. “The role of in-store shopping, and the role of e-commerce is changing, and it’s important for retailers to evolve with that,” said Arand.  

She pointed to an increase in people cooking “celebration” meals at home, from scratch, in favor of going to restaurants. That, in turn, is part of a wider trend of “trading down” for a good 90% of the shopping population that represents only 20% of the overall consumer spend these days, in what’s known as a K-shaped economy, where the rich are spending more, and lower- and middle-income households are spending less. 

That could look like spending $10 more on a fancier cut of steak than a consumer would usually choose, instead of eating out. Or it could mean eating at a fast-food restaurant rather than one with full service. On the other hand, the rise of people using GLP-1 drugs to lose and keep off weight means they’re less interested in snacks and more drawn to high-protein or healthy foods. 

Dizzy yet? Try following the speed of trends, said Bliss. “There’s been a collapse of the trend cycles,” she said. They used to take 10-20 years to come around. And, sure, Gen Z is nostalgic for things that happened before they were born, or when they were young, but also things from much more recent times. “Even some things from COVID give them warm tingly feelings,” said Bliss. “Things that were cringe last year are cool again.”  

Even the clear trend towards discounted goods for the lower-income 90% of shoppers is nuanced, said Volberding. While consumers are looking for deep discounts rather than the shallow discounts that were more popular a year ago, there’s also been a shift from name-brands to private label, rather than rock-bottom brands, or toward buying in bulk. 

“We don’t see the trade-down to the lowest tier,” said Volberding. “Consumers are not willing to sacrifice quality. They are willing to spend when it’s worth it. Even if you think discount stores are doing well, that bottom two-thirds are pulling back in terms of numbers of transactions and spend.” 

Then there’s the pessimism, which will continue to produce counter-intuitive results. “We hear consumers having a very negative sentiment, and we see some reflection of that in their behavior, but not what we would expect to see,” said Arand. “After COVID, people came out even if it scared them,” she said, comparing that to the recent holiday season, which was remarkably robust in terms of retail sales, increasing 4.1% November-December, year-on-year, according to NRF figures. “They’re saying: It doesn’t feel good, but I have to move on, mentally. In 2026, I wonder how much of that will go on,” mused Arand “It feels a bit like coming out of COVID.” 

“That doom is all around them, and that’s the culture, rather than what’s specifically in their wallets,” said Bliss.