Swiss chocolate maker Barry Callebaut has cut its operating profit forecast for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, with the company citing supply chain disruptions linked to the Iran war, and overcapacity in the global cocoa bean market.

According to an April 16 release from the world’s largest chocolate maker, Barry Callebaut is adjusting its forecast for earnings before interest and tax from mid-to-single-digit growth, to a decline somewhere in the mid-teens. This comes after the company saw both its sales volumes and revenue dip by roughly 7% year-over-year in the six month period between September 2025 and February 2026.

"We have significant work to do to reinvigorate the company after a turbulent period of industry disruption and transformation," said Barry Callebaut CEO Hein Schumacher, noting that while cocoa bean prices have decreased, the speed of that decline, an excess in capacity, and larger shipping disruptions in the Middle East have hit the company's profitability harder than anticipated.

Despite the weaker earnings outlook, Barry Callebaut said that it expects sales volumes to recover in the second half of the year, revising its full-year volume decline forecast from a mid-single-digit drop to between 1% and 3%. Essentially, the company is selling more chocolate than it previously expected, but is making less money doing so, because of the turbulence in the cocoa bean market. In order to compete with companies that bought cocoa later and cheaper, Barry Callebaut, whose brands include Van Houten and Mona Lisa chocolates, had to lower its prices, having bought cocoa at higher prices previously.

Cocoa prices had skyrocketed in 2024 and 2025, due to drought conditions and poor harvests in West Africa. Chocolate makers then passed those higher costs on to consumers, which drove down demand for chocolate overall. As harvests began to recover, the market was flooded with more cocoa than needed to meet consumer demand, leading to a decline in prices of roughly 70% from their 2024 peak. Now, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, countered by a comparatively bountiful harvest, will continue the rollercoaster ride.