The world’s top beef exporter Brazil is close to reaching its annual quota for shipments to its biggest buyer China, a situation that’s set to redraw trade flows at a time when global consumers are facing higher meat prices. 

China sought to protect its domestic farmers and producers at the start of 2026 by imposing beef import quotas. That’s spurred Brazilian meatpackers to rush goods to the Asian nation’s ports, and the limit is now looking to be met before the year is half over, according to analysts and industry data. 

With a 55% tariff on any additional volumes, the looming quota fulfillment will likely bring Brazil’s trade with China to a halt. The scenario has presented a challenge for Brazil’s meat industry, with expectations for a slowdown in slaughtering.

“This is something the supply chain has never had to deal with before, and it’s causing stress in the market,” said João Otávio Figueiredo, an analyst at consultancy Datagro.

It may be good news for consumers outside of China, however, as meatpackers seek other markets. That could boost supplies and potentially ease prices that have surged to record highs amid strong demand and limited supply. 

Shipments from Brazil to the U.S. will be key. Demand has been strong on the back of a massive cattle shortage and elevated beef prices in North America.

Because it can take about 60 days between animals being slaughtered in Brazil and arrival of a beef cargo in China, Brazilian beef exporters group Abiec signaled that as soon as mid-May the local plants may no longer process beef targeting Chinese markets. Other more conservative forecasts like the one from Datagro see that happening in June. 

“We either find new destinations — and that’s not something that happens overnight — or we will have to slow down production,” Abiec executive president Roberto Perosa told journalists on May 5. Exports could fall as much as 10% this year if no other meaningful market opens up for Brazil, he added. 

China has imported more than 510,000 tons of beef from Brazil in the first three months of the year, according to customs data. That is equivalent of 46% of the quota. By the end of April that percentage will have reached 65%, according to people familiar with the pace of shipments out of Brazil. The people didn’t want to be identified as official data from Chinese customs for April isn’t yet available.

That’s already pressuring prices of live cattle in Brazil, with futures traded in Sao Paulo trimming gains after a rally in the start of year. Ranchers are still withholding heifers in a cyclical move that tends to limit cattle supplies, but the perspective of a halt in beef exports to China is easing some of the pressure.

While no other country is big enough to replace China, Abiec’s Perosa said there are still hopes that Japan will allow imports of Brazilian beef sometime this year. Japanese sanitary authorities recently visited Brazil, but it’s still unclear if they will make any other requirements before allowing purchases.