United States supply chain activity experienced substantial growth in June, on the back of stronger-than-expected consumer spending despite high inflation. 

According to data from Florida Atlantic University, the U.S. Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) increased from 69.5 in May to 71.1 in June, marking the first time the index has risen above 70 since March 2022. The LMI, a monthly survey of supply chain executives at director level or above, measures the expansion or contraction of the logistics industry using eight unique components: inventory levels, inventory costs, warehousing capacity, warehousing utilization, warehousing prices, transportation capacity, transportation utilization, and transportation prices.

The LMI rise seen in June was attributed to increased inventory levels among larger firms and downstream retailers that participated in the survey. Also factoring in was greater pressure on utilization and prices in warehouses, as well as on transportation utilization. All this reflects consumer spending that was "surprisingly resilient," FAU noted, giving retailers the confidence to restock inventories to prepare for the upcoming back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

“In addition to the prepositioning of inventory for back-to-school and the holiday season, the push in inventory may also be to mitigate future tariff increases, and lock in pricing before any hikes take effect,” said FAU associate professor of supply chain management, Steven Carnovale, Ph.D.

Respondents believe that U.S. supply chains will continue to expand over the next 12 months, although the potential for new Trump administration tariffs and limited shipping capacity stemming from high freight demand could get in the way of that growth. U.S. inflation rates have also continued to rise in each month so far in 2026, moving from 2.4% in January to 4.2% in May.