Global trade activity declined in January, according to research from Panjiva. The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market declined by 5 percent and there was a 7 percent drop in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

The decline in manufacturers from December to January is slightly less than last year's December-to-January decline (6 percent), but more than the decline from December 2007 to January 2008 (-4 percent). Global trade appears to be tracking its typical seasonal path, though absolute level of global trade activity is still well below where we were before the 2009 recession.

Clearly, global trade is still vulnerable to shocks, but the news is not all negative.

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly from 23 percent to 22 perrcent.
• Similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined from 33 percent to 31 percent.

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