The size of the global container ship fleet is set to reach a new record level in 2024, threatening a “market imbalance” once the Red Sea situation is resolved, according to Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).

“The imbalance between supply and demand is set to widen in 2024. However, prolonged disruption in the Red Sea, forcing ships to sail via Cape of Good Hope, could tighten the supply/demand balance,” Rasmussen said in a January 10 statement. “Unless recycling increases significantly, the market imbalance appears set to return once the Red Sea situation is resolved.”

In 2023, shipyards delivered 350 new container ships with a total capacity of 2.2 million TEU, beating the previous record from 2015 when 1.7 million TEU was delivered. The 2023 record is now likely to be beaten already in 2024, Rasmussen said.

By contrast, 2023 saw a relatively low level of container ship recycling, so new ships entering the fleet caused an 8% rise in the capacity of the container fleet, the fastest growth registered since 2011. Ships larger than 15,000 TEU continued to dominate deliveries, and that segment grew 28% after 1.3 million TEU were delivered in 2023.

Another 83 ships larger than 15,000 TEU are expected to be delivered in 2024, adding 1.4 million TEU to the segment’s capacity and doubling its capacity in just four years. 

Recycling of ships is expected to increase in 2024 but the fleet could still grow by nearly 2.8 million TEU, or 10%, and by end 2024 exceed 30 million TEU for the first time in history. BIMCO forecasts demand for ship capacity will grow only 3-4% in 2024.